After robust growth, economic activity in the U.S. gaming industry will ease moderately over the next six months. For the gaming industry experts to thoroughly prepare themselves for future market conditions, the American Gaming Association (AGA) has published the Fall 2022 Gaming Industry Outlook presented by Fitch Ratings. The AGA's mission is to achieve sound policies and regulations consistent with casino gaming's modern appeal and vast economic contributions.
The Gaming Industry Outlook provides a snapshot of the industry's current and future economic health based on executive sentiment, casino visitation plans, gaming revenue, and economic indicators. The outlook includes two separate indices: the Current Conditions Index and the Future Conditions Index.
The Current Conditions Index reflects approximately stable casino gaming-related economic activity in the third quarter relative to the second quarter. At the same time, the Future Conditions Index indicates an expected moderate decrease in annualized industry economic activity over the next six months. The weaker outlook in the Future Conditions Index reflects a baseline economic outlook that now assumes a mild recession during the first half of next year, balanced by positive expectations expressed by the Gaming Executive Panel. In addition, nearly four in ten-panel participants (38%) expect business conditions to improve over the next three to six months, compared to only eight percent who expect worse conditions.
Gaming executives also expressed largely positive or neutral sentiments across various indicators. Overall, almost all respondents describe the current business situation as good (68%) or satisfactory (28%), and more than one-third expect future conditions to improve (38%) over the next three to six months. Panel participants anticipating an increased pace of growth in wages and benefits continue to outnumber those expecting a decrease by a wide margin (72% net positive). Meanwhile, supply chain issues remain a top concern even as they have started to ease. For example, two-thirds (65%) of panel participants cited supply chain delays as a limiting factor in the third quarter, down from 75% earlier this year.
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